Analysis on the characteristics of passenger car market in the first three quarters of 2021
According to the data of the passenger Association, the cumulative wholesale sales volume from January to September this year was 14.602 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, which continued to fall by 4.9 percentage points compared with January to August, and decreased by 402000 compared with the same period in 2019.
In fact, due to the "lack of core" has not been alleviated, the situation of "production and sales" appeared in China's auto market from January to September this year. According to the data, from January to September 2021, the manufacturer's inventory decreased by 290000, and the channel inventory decreased by 840000. The hot selling vehicles of multi vehicle enterprises fell into the dilemma of "no vehicle delivery", which affected the sales volume of the vehicle market to a certain extent.
Although the cumulative sales volume of the car market in the first three quarters of this year has been lower than that in the same period of 2019, it still presents several bright spot characteristics.
(1) The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, forming a strong contrast with the trend of traditional fuel vehicles
In sharp contrast to the trend of traditional fuel vehicles, since this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased rapidly, realizing the substitution and catch-up of the fuel vehicle market, and driving the pace of the transformation of the vehicle market to new energy. In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high of 345400, and the cumulative sales volume from January to September exceeded 2 million.
(2) The scale of cars and SUVs is the same, and the prospect of MPV new cars is promising
From January to September, the sales volume of the three categories of narrow passenger vehicles increased by about 10% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of cars and SUVs reached 6.93 million, with a total market share of 95%. Although MPV accounts for only 5%, the speed of pushing new car enterprises is accelerating. The industry generally predicts that this year and next may become the callback period of MPV.
MPV market demand is still sluggish, but it is rapidly dividing internally. The sales of medium and high-end models are outstanding, and the demand for micro low-end models has plummeted. Recently, Beijing Hyundai custu, Dongfeng Yueda Kia xinjiahua and GAC Toyota Saina three medium and high-end MPV new cars have been listed or released, reflecting that car enterprises are relatively optimistic about the prospect of this market.
(3) Chip shortage, German / Japanese "most injured"
The shortage of chips has a prominent impact on joint venture brands, especially for German and Japanese companies, including North South Volkswagen, BBA and Japanese companies, which have shown an obvious situation of "determining sales by production", and the terminal sales have fallen sharply in recent two months.
Specifically, the sales volume of Japanese in China in the first three quarters increased by only 0.3% year-on-year to 3.188 million, and the market share fell to 21.8%; In the same period, the sales volume of European series showed a year-on-year negative growth of 7.5%, with the share falling 4.5 percentage points to 21.7% compared with the same period of last year.
(4) Luxury cars performed better than passenger cars, and the market growth slowed down
In the first three quarters of 2021, the retail sales of luxury cars increased by 39.7% year-on-year to 1471700, which was better than that of passenger cars as a whole. In fact, whether it is the 2019 auto market adjustment period or the 2020 year severely hit by the epidemic, the impact of high-end models dominated by luxury brands is far lower than the market. It can be seen that the medium and high-end automobile market is less affected by the general environment and is still in the stage of capacity expansion.
However, in terms of market share, luxury brands had a narrow passenger car market share of 14.1% in the first three quarters, which was significantly slower than that in previous years. According to the analysis, the main reason is that in 2021, due to the serious capacity constraints of most luxury car manufacturers due to chip shortage, the growth of sales slowed significantly.
In fact, due to the "lack of core" has not been alleviated, the situation of "production and sales" appeared in China's auto market from January to September this year. According to the data, from January to September 2021, the manufacturer's inventory decreased by 290000, and the channel inventory decreased by 840000. The hot selling vehicles of multi vehicle enterprises fell into the dilemma of "no vehicle delivery", which affected the sales volume of the vehicle market to a certain extent.
Although the cumulative sales volume of the car market in the first three quarters of this year has been lower than that in the same period of 2019, it still presents several bright spot characteristics.
(1) The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, forming a strong contrast with the trend of traditional fuel vehicles
In sharp contrast to the trend of traditional fuel vehicles, since this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased rapidly, realizing the substitution and catch-up of the fuel vehicle market, and driving the pace of the transformation of the vehicle market to new energy. In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high of 345400, and the cumulative sales volume from January to September exceeded 2 million.
(2) The scale of cars and SUVs is the same, and the prospect of MPV new cars is promising
From January to September, the sales volume of the three categories of narrow passenger vehicles increased by about 10% year-on-year. Among them, the cumulative sales volume of cars and SUVs reached 6.93 million, with a total market share of 95%. Although MPV accounts for only 5%, the speed of pushing new car enterprises is accelerating. The industry generally predicts that this year and next may become the callback period of MPV.
MPV market demand is still sluggish, but it is rapidly dividing internally. The sales of medium and high-end models are outstanding, and the demand for micro low-end models has plummeted. Recently, Beijing Hyundai custu, Dongfeng Yueda Kia xinjiahua and GAC Toyota Saina three medium and high-end MPV new cars have been listed or released, reflecting that car enterprises are relatively optimistic about the prospect of this market.
(3) Chip shortage, German / Japanese "most injured"
The shortage of chips has a prominent impact on joint venture brands, especially for German and Japanese companies, including North South Volkswagen, BBA and Japanese companies, which have shown an obvious situation of "determining sales by production", and the terminal sales have fallen sharply in recent two months.
Specifically, the sales volume of Japanese in China in the first three quarters increased by only 0.3% year-on-year to 3.188 million, and the market share fell to 21.8%; In the same period, the sales volume of European series showed a year-on-year negative growth of 7.5%, with the share falling 4.5 percentage points to 21.7% compared with the same period of last year.
(4) Luxury cars performed better than passenger cars, and the market growth slowed down
In the first three quarters of 2021, the retail sales of luxury cars increased by 39.7% year-on-year to 1471700, which was better than that of passenger cars as a whole. In fact, whether it is the 2019 auto market adjustment period or the 2020 year severely hit by the epidemic, the impact of high-end models dominated by luxury brands is far lower than the market. It can be seen that the medium and high-end automobile market is less affected by the general environment and is still in the stage of capacity expansion.
However, in terms of market share, luxury brands had a narrow passenger car market share of 14.1% in the first three quarters, which was significantly slower than that in previous years. According to the analysis, the main reason is that in 2021, due to the serious capacity constraints of most luxury car manufacturers due to chip shortage, the growth of sales slowed significantly.
