Trend analysis of China's automobile market in 2022
Highlights of China's automobile market in 2021
2021 is a difficult year for China's automobile industry. The epidemic has not subsided yet, coupled with the shortage of chips and the continuous high price of raw materials. It is not easy to achieve such results. While the production and sales of automobiles are growing again, there are also some highlights in the automobile market:
First, the new energy vehicle market has shown explosive growth, and the product quality and market recognition have been comprehensively improved. In 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles were 3.521 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, accounting for 13.4% of the total sales of vehicles. Since the 13th Five Year Plan period, China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly and gradually grown into an innovation highland in the field of new energy vehicles in the world. The sales volume of new energy vehicles has been ranked first in the world since 2015. After years of cultivation, China's new energy vehicle industry chain has reached the most perfect level in the world, with rich and diverse product supply. Domestic consumers have changed from tentative consumption to assured consumption, and their awareness of green consumption is gradually increasing.
Second, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars has increased significantly. In 2021, the sales of Chinese brand passenger cars were 9.543 million, with a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, accounting for 44.4% of the total sales of passenger cars, close to the best level in history, and the share increased by 6 percentage points over the previous year. At present, China's automobile industry is moving towards a high-quality development stage. At this time of industrial reform, Chinese brand passenger car enterprises seize new development opportunities and accelerate to narrow the gap with foreign advantageous enterprises. At present, some products of Chinese brand passenger cars can fully compete with joint venture brands, and even surpass joint venture brands in some aspects.
Third, the trend of consumption upgrading is obvious. In 2021, a total of 3.472 million high-end brand passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, 14.2 percentage points higher than the industry growth rate, accounting for 16.2% of the total passenger car sales, 1.9 percentage points higher than the previous year. With the improvement of people's living standards, cars are no longer a simple means of transportation, but also carry emotional needs. High-end cars represented by high-level and luxury cars are sought after. At present, the passenger car market has entered the era of stock market competition. The previous model of winning consumers by relying on low-end market and low price will no longer exist.
Fourth, the export showed rapid growth year-on-year, with the export volume exceeding 2 million vehicles for the first time. In 2021, automobile manufacturing enterprises exported a total of 2.015 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of twice. Over the past decade, China's automobile exports have been hovering around 1 million, and exceeded 2 million for the first time in 2021. Thanks to the continuous recovery of the world economy, global automobile consumption is also recovering; The transformation and upgrading of Chinese brands have formed advantages, and the supply chain is relatively complete, which can provide competitive products for overseas consumers in time; Countries represented by Europe and the United States have stepped up the promotion of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles have become a new driving force for China's export growth. The export of China's automobile industry has achieved a historic leap and is entering a new stage of globalization.
Prediction of China's automobile market in 2022
With regard to the prediction of the automobile market in 2022, the prediction is based on the prediction of the production and market situation of the main vehicle enterprises this year, combined with the prediction model analysis and the prediction research results of relevant research institutions, especially the analysis of various industry experts in the "2022 China automobile market prediction Summit" held at the end of 2021, combined with the analysis and prediction of the main influencing factors of the automobile market this year, It is concluded that China's auto market will continue to grow in 2022.
Specifically, in 2022, China's total automobile sales are expected to reach 27.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%. Among them, there were 23 million passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 7%; 4.5 million commercial vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; New energy vehicles will reach 5 million, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%.
Analysis on Influencing Factors of China's automobile market in 2022
First, China's economy is resilient, and its long-term fundamentals will not change, ensuring the sustained growth of the automobile market. The recently held central economic work conference in 2021 made it clear that the economic work in 2022 should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. Do a good job in the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", strive to stabilize the macro-economic market and keep the economy running within a reasonable range. The stable economic situation will effectively ensure the sustained growth of China's automobile consumption.
Second, the automobile market has great potential and the total demand is still strong. With the deepening of supply side structural reform and the new pattern of unblocking the domestic circulation, the supply side reform of the automobile industry is deepening, and China's automobile output is expected to continue to grow. Especially under the guidance of the national new energy and intelligent connected vehicle policies in the past decade, the new technologies of the automobile industry have made continuous breakthroughs, the automobile products provided by automobile enterprises have better met the needs of consumers, the acceptance of consumers for new energy and intelligent connected vehicles has been continuously improved, and the marketization of new energy vehicles has developed rapidly, which has jointly promoted the development of the automobile market.
Third, the epidemic prevention and control measures continued to be optimized, and the impact on the domestic automobile market tended to weaken. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, vaccination has been basically popularized in China, and epidemic prevention and control measures have been continuously optimized, including mature response plans and accurate response measures. The impact of epidemic fluctuations on China's economic activities has been gradually reduced, epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, and the impact on the automobile market will be further weakened compared with the previous two years.
Fourth, with the gradual easing of chip shortage, automobile production will further meet automobile demand. According to the judgment of the industry, the shortage of chips in 2021 has restrained the market demand of about 1.5 million vehicles. With the gradual functioning of the international chip market regulation mechanism and the joint efforts of the government, host manufacturers and chip suppliers, the chip localization alternative has been gradually implemented. The chip supply is expected to be alleviated in the second half of 2022. At that time, the suppressed demand in 2021 will be released, which will become a positive factor to promote the growth of the automobile market in 2022.
Fifth, the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market has increased rapidly, which has strongly supported the demand of the vehicle market. In the long run, whether it is to achieve the national "double carbon" goal, or the superposition of intelligent networked vehicle technology and the innovation of business model, it will accelerate the popularization of new energy vehicles to a great extent. According to the preliminary industry consensus, the national targets of 20% and 40% penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2025 and 2030 are likely to be achieved ahead of schedule.
Sixth, new energy vehicles have entered the market-oriented track, and the decline of subsidies will not significantly change the automobile market. After market cultivation in recent years, the supply chain system of new energy vehicles in China has gradually developed and expanded. The large-scale expansion has brought cost reduction, and the sales of new energy vehicles have basically entered the market track. At the same time, the accelerated application of intelligent networking technology, the continuous improvement of new car intelligent configuration and the increase of vehicle added value have made up for the pressure on the battery cost of new energy vehicles to a certain extent. Therefore, the impact of subsidy decline has been very small.
Seventh, overseas demand is strong, and automobile export will usher in rapid growth. Thanks to the recovery of the world economy, automobile consumption is also recovering; China's automobile supply chain is relatively complete, and the comprehensive level of products has also been greatly improved, which can provide competitive products for overseas consumers in time; In order to meet the carbon reduction target, countries represented by Europe and the United States have increased their support for new energy vehicles, which have become a new driving force for China's export growth. The growth rate of China's automobile export is expected to be about 20% this year.
Generally speaking, the world today is experiencing great changes that have not been seen in a century. A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform are developing in depth. Electrification, intelligence and networking are accelerating the reconstruction of the century old automobile industry, which has become a new opportunity for the development of China's automobile industry. In 2021, China's automobile market made a good start for the automobile industry in the "14th five year plan" and successfully opened a new situation of high-quality development. In 2022, under the guidance of government policies and the joint efforts of enterprises in the automotive industry, the automotive industry will have great prospects.
2021 is a difficult year for China's automobile industry. The epidemic has not subsided yet, coupled with the shortage of chips and the continuous high price of raw materials. It is not easy to achieve such results. While the production and sales of automobiles are growing again, there are also some highlights in the automobile market:
First, the new energy vehicle market has shown explosive growth, and the product quality and market recognition have been comprehensively improved. In 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles were 3.521 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, accounting for 13.4% of the total sales of vehicles. Since the 13th Five Year Plan period, China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly and gradually grown into an innovation highland in the field of new energy vehicles in the world. The sales volume of new energy vehicles has been ranked first in the world since 2015. After years of cultivation, China's new energy vehicle industry chain has reached the most perfect level in the world, with rich and diverse product supply. Domestic consumers have changed from tentative consumption to assured consumption, and their awareness of green consumption is gradually increasing.
Second, the market share of Chinese brand passenger cars has increased significantly. In 2021, the sales of Chinese brand passenger cars were 9.543 million, with a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, accounting for 44.4% of the total sales of passenger cars, close to the best level in history, and the share increased by 6 percentage points over the previous year. At present, China's automobile industry is moving towards a high-quality development stage. At this time of industrial reform, Chinese brand passenger car enterprises seize new development opportunities and accelerate to narrow the gap with foreign advantageous enterprises. At present, some products of Chinese brand passenger cars can fully compete with joint venture brands, and even surpass joint venture brands in some aspects.
Third, the trend of consumption upgrading is obvious. In 2021, a total of 3.472 million high-end brand passenger cars were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, 14.2 percentage points higher than the industry growth rate, accounting for 16.2% of the total passenger car sales, 1.9 percentage points higher than the previous year. With the improvement of people's living standards, cars are no longer a simple means of transportation, but also carry emotional needs. High-end cars represented by high-level and luxury cars are sought after. At present, the passenger car market has entered the era of stock market competition. The previous model of winning consumers by relying on low-end market and low price will no longer exist.
Fourth, the export showed rapid growth year-on-year, with the export volume exceeding 2 million vehicles for the first time. In 2021, automobile manufacturing enterprises exported a total of 2.015 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of twice. Over the past decade, China's automobile exports have been hovering around 1 million, and exceeded 2 million for the first time in 2021. Thanks to the continuous recovery of the world economy, global automobile consumption is also recovering; The transformation and upgrading of Chinese brands have formed advantages, and the supply chain is relatively complete, which can provide competitive products for overseas consumers in time; Countries represented by Europe and the United States have stepped up the promotion of new energy vehicles. New energy vehicles have become a new driving force for China's export growth. The export of China's automobile industry has achieved a historic leap and is entering a new stage of globalization.
Prediction of China's automobile market in 2022
With regard to the prediction of the automobile market in 2022, the prediction is based on the prediction of the production and market situation of the main vehicle enterprises this year, combined with the prediction model analysis and the prediction research results of relevant research institutions, especially the analysis of various industry experts in the "2022 China automobile market prediction Summit" held at the end of 2021, combined with the analysis and prediction of the main influencing factors of the automobile market this year, It is concluded that China's auto market will continue to grow in 2022.
Specifically, in 2022, China's total automobile sales are expected to reach 27.5 million, with a year-on-year increase of about 5%. Among them, there were 23 million passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 7%; 4.5 million commercial vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 6%; New energy vehicles will reach 5 million, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%.
Analysis on Influencing Factors of China's automobile market in 2022
First, China's economy is resilient, and its long-term fundamentals will not change, ensuring the sustained growth of the automobile market. The recently held central economic work conference in 2021 made it clear that the economic work in 2022 should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. Do a good job in the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", strive to stabilize the macro-economic market and keep the economy running within a reasonable range. The stable economic situation will effectively ensure the sustained growth of China's automobile consumption.
Second, the automobile market has great potential and the total demand is still strong. With the deepening of supply side structural reform and the new pattern of unblocking the domestic circulation, the supply side reform of the automobile industry is deepening, and China's automobile output is expected to continue to grow. Especially under the guidance of the national new energy and intelligent connected vehicle policies in the past decade, the new technologies of the automobile industry have made continuous breakthroughs, the automobile products provided by automobile enterprises have better met the needs of consumers, the acceptance of consumers for new energy and intelligent connected vehicles has been continuously improved, and the marketization of new energy vehicles has developed rapidly, which has jointly promoted the development of the automobile market.
Third, the epidemic prevention and control measures continued to be optimized, and the impact on the domestic automobile market tended to weaken. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, vaccination has been basically popularized in China, and epidemic prevention and control measures have been continuously optimized, including mature response plans and accurate response measures. The impact of epidemic fluctuations on China's economic activities has been gradually reduced, epidemic prevention and control has become normalized, and the impact on the automobile market will be further weakened compared with the previous two years.
Fourth, with the gradual easing of chip shortage, automobile production will further meet automobile demand. According to the judgment of the industry, the shortage of chips in 2021 has restrained the market demand of about 1.5 million vehicles. With the gradual functioning of the international chip market regulation mechanism and the joint efforts of the government, host manufacturers and chip suppliers, the chip localization alternative has been gradually implemented. The chip supply is expected to be alleviated in the second half of 2022. At that time, the suppressed demand in 2021 will be released, which will become a positive factor to promote the growth of the automobile market in 2022.
Fifth, the sales volume of the new energy vehicle market has increased rapidly, which has strongly supported the demand of the vehicle market. In the long run, whether it is to achieve the national "double carbon" goal, or the superposition of intelligent networked vehicle technology and the innovation of business model, it will accelerate the popularization of new energy vehicles to a great extent. According to the preliminary industry consensus, the national targets of 20% and 40% penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2025 and 2030 are likely to be achieved ahead of schedule.
Sixth, new energy vehicles have entered the market-oriented track, and the decline of subsidies will not significantly change the automobile market. After market cultivation in recent years, the supply chain system of new energy vehicles in China has gradually developed and expanded. The large-scale expansion has brought cost reduction, and the sales of new energy vehicles have basically entered the market track. At the same time, the accelerated application of intelligent networking technology, the continuous improvement of new car intelligent configuration and the increase of vehicle added value have made up for the pressure on the battery cost of new energy vehicles to a certain extent. Therefore, the impact of subsidy decline has been very small.
Seventh, overseas demand is strong, and automobile export will usher in rapid growth. Thanks to the recovery of the world economy, automobile consumption is also recovering; China's automobile supply chain is relatively complete, and the comprehensive level of products has also been greatly improved, which can provide competitive products for overseas consumers in time; In order to meet the carbon reduction target, countries represented by Europe and the United States have increased their support for new energy vehicles, which have become a new driving force for China's export growth. The growth rate of China's automobile export is expected to be about 20% this year.
Generally speaking, the world today is experiencing great changes that have not been seen in a century. A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform are developing in depth. Electrification, intelligence and networking are accelerating the reconstruction of the century old automobile industry, which has become a new opportunity for the development of China's automobile industry. In 2021, China's automobile market made a good start for the automobile industry in the "14th five year plan" and successfully opened a new situation of high-quality development. In 2022, under the guidance of government policies and the joint efforts of enterprises in the automotive industry, the automotive industry will have great prospects.
